CompositesWorld
Issue link: https://cw.epubxp.com/i/620463
JANUARY 2016 4 CompositesWorld FROM THE EDITOR » As I write this, I'm just back from the 2015 edition of Compos- itesWorld's annual Carbon Fiber conference (Dec. 8-10, Knox- ville, TN, US). It was, as usual, an informative and interesting exploration of where and how carbon fber is applied today, and where and how it might be applied in the future. Te pre-conference seminar featured Chris Red, principal of Composites Forecasts and Consulting LLC (Mesa, AZ, US), who revised his data on carbon fber supply and demand — highly anticipated and coveted information that always sheds light on how the compos- ites market is evolving. We'll provide a more in-depth review of Red's and other's presentations in the February issue of Compos- itesWorld, but in the meantime, I'll provide here a quick review of what I heard and what struck me as important. First, the data from Chris Red. Te chart below predicts overall carbon fber demand and supply through 2020. As you can see, Red anticipates demand will outstrip supply by the end of that period, which likely will prompt additional expansion from carbon fber suppliers — perhaps in the 2018-2019 timeframe. Trough 2024, Red also anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in carbon fber demand of 10.2%. Red divides the carbon fber market into three segments: consumer/recreational, aerospace and industrial. As has been the case for several years now, growth will be driven primarily by the industrial segment, which accounts for 75% of carbon fber demand. Within the industrial sector, most of the activity will be centered on pressure vessels (5,364 MT in 2015, 22.2% CAGR), automotive (10,056 MT in 2015, 13.4% CAGR) and non-wind energy (2,800 MT in 2015, 25.9% CAGR). Aerospace remains a stalwart of carbon fber, but with the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350 XWB in production, and with no major aircraft program on the horizon other than the 777X wings, growth will be relatively modest: 15,460 MT in 2015, 3.42% CAGR. Tere were two questions asked several times during Carbon Fiber 2015. Te frst concerned replacements for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, which likely will be designed/developed in the 2025-2030 timeframe. Te frst question was whether or not carbon fber will be used to fabricate their fuselages. Unlike the 787 and A350, these smaller craft have thinner-walled fuselages, and composites at that thickness are more susceptible to damage from runway debris and other impacts. Further, the build rates of these planes demands throughput capacity greater than current compos- ites technology provides. Tose who felded this question expressed hope that as the next decade approaches, composite materials and processes will have evolved sufciently to meet these needs. Te second question was geopolitical: What about China? Conventional wisdom at the conference indicated that Chinese industry in general, and the Chinese government in particular, are working diligently to develop carbon fber manufacturing capacity that could complicate the supply/demand picture over the next decade. China's biggest challenge appears to be development of a source of high-quality polyacrylonitrile (PAN) precursor for carbon fber manufacture. However, given China's vast chemical resources, it seems only a matter of time before this challenge is met. Tere were, of course, many other topics tackled at the confer- ence, including automotive, wind, recycling, additive manufacturing and the 777X wings. Look for more information on these subjects at www.compositesworld.com, and in CW's February issue. Carbon fber demand will outstrip supply by 2020, prompting expansion. JEFF SLOAN — Editor- In- Chief Carbon fber demand and supply, metric tonnes (MT) Carbon fber demand Carbon fber supply (nameplate) Carbon fber supply (actual)* 2010 48,370 79,650 47,790 2015 82,400 143,595 93,171 2020 (est.) 150,200 180,600 129,965 *Actual output is less than nameplate, due to capacity knockdown.