CompositesWorld

MAR 2017

CompositesWorld

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MARCH 2017 8 CompositesWorld COMPOSITES: PAST, PRESENT & FUTURE Kevin Michaels is president of AeroDynamic Advisory (Ann Arbor, MI, US), a boutique consulting firm focused on the global aerospace and aviation industries. He has 30 years of aviation experience and is a globally recognized expert in the aerospace manufacturing and MRO sectors. He also has significant expertise in business-to-business marketing, customer satisfaction, M&A; advisory, technology assessment, cluster development and strategic planning. Michaels is a contributing columnist to Aviation Week & Space Technology and serves on the advisory board of the University of Michigan's Aerospace Engineering Department. This column is based on a CW-hosted webinar aired in October 2016. consolidation of Tier 1s in the coming year. Tier 2s, in turn, will face a downward squeeze from consolidating Tier 1s and upward pressure from Tier 4s, and it will be very important for them to develop what I call a "winning business model" and a capacity for competitive differentiation. And, there are far too many Tier 3 firms; attrition is a certainty, and consolidation will take place at this level as well. However, in my opinion, consolidation of Tier 4 suppliers is nearly complete (see the "Aerospace Supply Chain" chart on p. 6). If we look at aerospace raw material demand, which totaled 1.56 billion lb (707 million kg) in 2015, composites demand accounted for 71 million lb (32.2 million kg), or roughly 5% of the total. I expect that composite material's 5% share of demand will grow by 6% per annum through 2020, with titanium close behind at a 4% annual growth rate. e aggregate "buy-to-fly" ratio is approxi- mately 6:1, for all materials combined. anks to design and processing improvements, the composites buy-to-fly ratio is far less, ranging from 1.2:1 to 1.4:1, which helps favor its growth. Of the aerospace-related events that occurred in 2016, two stand out that appear to validate the contention that changes are coming to this market. Foremost is that Boeing opened its composite wing center in Everett, WA, US. at Boeing brought wing manufacturing back in-house and will keep wing manufacture close to the design process is one big indication that Tier 1s will not have the opportu- nity to build wings in the future, and will settle for fewer and less- profitable projects. Another was the first delivery of the Bombardier (Montreal, QC, Canada) CSeries single-aisle jet, to Swiss Airlines. It features the industry's first aluminum-lithium alloy fuselage, with composite wings made via infusion. Aluminum-lithium is significantly less dense than aluminum alone, yet is more damage tolerant at lower cost than composites. is might signal some significant material changes in single-aisle jets. e composites industry must gird itself for tougher conditions in supplying aero- space components in the coming years. ABOUT THE AUTHOR High Density Urethane Tooling Board and Core Material (800) 845-0745 • www.precisionboard.com • Closed cell structure • No out-gassing • 15 standard densities • Low-to-no dust machining • Exceeds aviation flammability standards Make it Precision Board Plus New Material! Low-to-no dust! See the 22-second machining video on our website

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