CompositesWorld

AUG 2018

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AUGUST 2018 10 CompositesWorld GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX: COMPOSITES FABRICATING June 2018 – 56.5 » e GBI: Composites Fabricating Index for June registered 56.5, indicating that the US composites industry was experiencing modestly slower growth compared to the preceding three months. But seen in the context of the extended history of the Index, June's results were still very encouraging. During 2017, for example — the best calendar year in the history of the index — the average monthly reading was 55.1. Furthermore, the Composites Fabricating Index's lifetime average of 51.5 is significantly lower than the June reading. Compared to the same month one year ago, the Index had increased approximately 4.2%. e Gardner Intelligence team's review of the underlying data for the month of June indicates that the Index was pulled strongly higher by the Supplier Deliveries and Employment subindices. Concurrently, the Index, an averages-based calculation, was pulled lower by Backlog and Exports. Growth in both Production and New Orders has slowed significantly from the blistering pace set during the first quarter of the year. In their place, Supplier Deliveries and Employment became the two most significant upward drivers of the Index's latest performance. is change in primary drivers from New Orders and Production to Employment and Supplier Deliveries is consistent with the Gardner Intelligence team's view that the business cycle up-swing in evidence since early 2017 is maturing. e industry, which was faced with a surge in New Orders, has made significant changes over the past 18-24 months to handle consistently greater levels of demand. e continu- ation of strong New Orders volumes will play a decisive role in the longevity of the current phase of the business cycle. Composites Index trending lower but still in growth mode Michael Guckes is the chief economist for Gardner Intelligence, a division of Gardner Business Media (Cincinnati, OH US). He has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years in a wide range of industries. Guckes received his BA in political science and economics from Kenyon College and his MBA from Ohio State University. mguckes@gardnerweb.com ABOUT THE AUTHOR Supplier Deliveries and Employment now key Index drivers Expansion of the composites supply chain over the past 12-18 months has enabled higher levels of production. Supplier delivery levels and employment growth are higher now than in any prior year in the history of the Index. Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence. Visit the blog at gardnerintelligence.com or e-mail mguckes@gardnerweb.com PRESENTED BY GBI: Composites Fabricating GBI: Composites Fabricating — Supplier Deliveries and Employment (3-month moving average) Supplier Deliveries Employment Trending lower but still growing The Composites Fabricating Index fell farther away from its all-time high reached in April. Supplier Deliveries and Employment, in June, supplanted New Orders and Production as the key drivers of the Index. 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

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