CompositesWorld

DEC 2018

CompositesWorld

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9 GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX: COMPOSITES FABRICATING October 2018 — 56.6 CompositesWorld.com » e GBI: Composites Fabricating Index retained its accelerated growth trend in October, registering a solid 56.6. is sets the year-to-date average index reading at 58.2, which if left unchanged, will establish 2018 as the best year in history for the Index. For comparison, the current record was established in 2017 at an average reading for the year at 55.1. e latest reading is 4.8% lower than during the same month one year ago; however, the prior year's reading at that time was also an all-time high monthly reading. Gardner Intelligence's review of the underlying data for the month indicates that the Index was pulled higher by supplier deliv- eries, new orders and production. e Index — calculated as an average — was pulled lower by backlogs, employment and exports. During the month, supplier deliveries and new orders rose, while all other components grew at slower rates than in the prior month. For a Šfth consecutive month exports contracted, yet the strong reading for new orders suggests that domestic demand is o‹setting export weakness. e composites industry is particularly susceptible to export volatility induced either by trade regu- lations or foreign exchange Œuctuations, or both. Since April, both factors have had a signiŠcant impact on the composites industry. In that time, the US dollar has appreciated by roughly ""% against the Chinese yuan and trade sanctions imposed by China have made several types of US aircraft and aerospace products more expensive. Index extends strong expansion trend Michael Guckes is the chief economist for Gardner Intelligence, a division of Gardner Business Media (Cincinnati, OH, US). He has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years in a wide range of industries. Guckes received his BA in political science and economics from Kenyon College and his MBA from Ohio State University. mguckes@gardnerweb.com A B O U T T H E A U T H O R Domestic demand for composites supports production growth New orders readings have resumed their previous expansion path established prior to the surprise July slowdown. This has come despite a worsening contraction in exports. Overall production continues to expand. Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence. Visit the blog at gardnerintelligence.com or e-mail mguckes@gardnerweb.com PRESENTED BY GBI: Composites Fabricating GBI: Composites Fabricating — New Orders and Production (3-month moving average) New Orders Production Market influenced by aerospace exports The Composites Index was supported by quickly expanding levels of supplier deliveries, but was also pulled lower by a worsening contraction in exports. The composites market's strong reliance on aerospace products makes it particularly vulnerable to factors influencing exports.

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