CompositesWorld
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Predictions for carbon fber's future, commercial aircraft delivery milestones, Ford's new EV thrust, Cytec's new name, and carbon fber rope for high-rise elevators. FEBRUARY 2016 16 CompositesWorld TRENDS Carbon fber supply/demand: Outlook is bright Chris Red, principal at Composites Forecasts and Consulting LLC (Mesa, AZ, US), was on hand again in December with his global carbon fber supply and demand fgures at CompositesWorld's annual Carbon Fiber conference in Knoxville, TN, US. Red's presentations are highly respected and closely scrutinized, and this year's edition was no exception. The data charted here, culled from Red's presentation, speak for themselves, but there are some specifcs worth noting. First, Red divides the carbon fber industry into three sectors: aerospace, consumer/ recreational and industrial (which includes automotive and energy). For several years, a vast majority (75%) of the world's carbon fber has been consumed by the industrial sector. Going forward, this is where most growth will occur. Second, although the aerospace sector will remain impor- tant — the Boeing 787, the Airbus A350 XWB and the F-35 Lightning II are in production, and the 777X wing program is coming on line — there is no similarly large aerocompos- ites program on the horizon to spur substantial carbon fber manufacturing expansion. The next major programs are beyond the horizon in the 2025-2030 timeframe: replace- ments for the Airbus A320 and the Boeing 737. Even so, these likely will have carbon fber wings but it remains to be seen whether composites will be used in the fuselages. One question is whether, in 10 years, composite fuselage fabrica- tion processes will be sufciently fast enough to meet the throughput requirements of a single-aisle aircraft program. Also unknown is if a carbon fber single-aisle aircraft fuse- lage, proportionally thinner than the fuselage on the larger 787 and A350, can efectively withstand the wear and tear of the commercial air travel environment. It might be that aluminum, at a certain thickness, is a more cost-efective fuselage material. Third, it appears, fnally, that the auto industry is poised to become the carbon fber juggernaut that the composites industry has been hoping it might become. The consensus at the conference was that automotive OEMs will likely take a material-agnostic, all-of-the-above approach to vehicle development, employing a mix of steel, aluminum and composites, applied as mechanical requirements demand and as cost allows. Fourth, carbon fber composite pressure vessels for stor- age and transport of compressed and liquefed natural gas in automotive and feet applications is expected to drive substantial carbon fber growth, particularly in Asia, South America and parts of Europe. Fifth, carbon fber in wind energy is forecast to grow steadily (8% CAGR), but at a rate slightly less than the average for the entire carbon fber industry (10.2% CAGR). However, the US President Obama has since signed into law a new Congressional budget that extends the renewable energy production tax credit (PTC) for fve years — a window of PTC stability that should spur substantial new US wind projects. Finally, Red expects, in about 2020, that carbon fber demand will exceed supply. This likely will spur carbon fber manufacturing expansion in the 2018-2019 timeframe. For more about Red's presentation, view his video inter- view with CW online | short.compositesworld.com/CFRed GLOBAL CARBON FIBER DEMAND FORECAST, METRIC TONNES Market 2015 2020 2024 CAGR Consumer/Recreational 14,830 16,740 18,620 2.3% Aerospace 15,460 22,100 21,650 3.4% Industrial 52,800 118,490 178,920 13% Total 83,090 157,330 219,200 10.2% GLOBAL CARBON FIBER SUPPLY FORECAST, METRIC TONNES Year Nameplate Capacity Actual Output (est.) 2015 143,595 93,171 2020 180,600 129,965 GLOBAL CARBON FIBER DEMAND FORECAST, CRITICAL END MARKETS, METRIC TONNES Market 2015 2020 2024 CAGR Commercial aircraft structures 5,545 8,880 8,293 4.1% Automotive 10,056 23,456 47,011 13.7% Pressure vessels 5,364 19,519 39,955 22.2% Wind energy 15,000 30,000 32,643 8.1% GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF CARBON FIBER CAPACITY (NAMEPLATE) 2015 2020 Region Small tow Large tow Small tow Large tow Asia 46% 24% 45% 31% North America 32% 15% 32% 15% EU and Russia 19% 59% 20% 45% Middle East 3% 2% 3% 9% Latin and South America 0% 0% 0% 0% Nameplate, metric tonnes/yr 101,895 42,400 113,400 67,900 Source | CW / Photo | Jef Sloan