CompositesWorld
Issue link: https://cw.epubxp.com/i/681810
JUNE 2016 6 CompositesWorld COMPOSITES: PAST, PRESENT & FUTURE » Just 10 years ago, three major suppliers of carbon fber supplied 70% of the worldwide market. Today, the same three suppliers — Toray Industries, Toho Tenax and Mitsubishi Rayon Corp. (MRC), all based in Tokyo, Japan — have a combined market share of 45% (excluding Toray's recent acquisition of Zoltek Corp., St. Louis, MO, US), with nearly 20 competitors vying for position. Notably, every player in this burgeoning sector of the composites market can point to massive expansion. Overall, there is now three times the capacity and three times the demand for carbon fber, compared to 2005. Tat growth has been refected not only in the supply chain's development but also in its value: Hexcel's share price, for example, in June 2005, stood at US$16.30, but by the same date in 2015, it was US$49.49. Hexcel manufactures everything from carbon fber to fnished aircraft structures, and it is in the aerospace industry that carbon fber has seen massive increases in usage. Te Boeing Co.'s (Chicago, IL, US) 787 and the Airbus (Toulouse, France) A350 XWB and A380 widebody platforms accelerated composites use in aircraft — exceeding the airlines' requirements for reduced fuel consumption and emissions, reduced mainte- nance and longer design life, fewer parts, and reduced tooling and assembly costs. Composite materials also deliver an enhanced passenger experience (by damping engine noise/vibration) and a cabin atmosphere less conducive to dehydration. For large, widebody aircraft, carbon fber delivers a winning value proposi- tion. Competition, legislation and the uncertainty of fuel pricing created the "perfect storm" necessary for technology adoption. Over the next 20 years, nearly 9,000 new widebodied aircraft are due for delivery, and they will all use predominantly carbon fber composites for their primary structures. Narrowbody aircraft orders are increasing in similar fashion, typically at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 4%, driven by the growth of air travel in China, the Middle East and other emerging markets. Future Materials Group's recent in-depth research into the specifc opportunities for composites in the widebody and narrowbody commercial aircraft markets has underscored some challenges, but also prompted some intriguing conclusions. For narrowbody aircraft, it might be assumed that carbon fber demand would mirror that of the past 10 years and continue the widebody story. Yes, there are drivers for carbon fber adoption for narrowbodies, but our research reveals that there also are barriers that make carbon fber use less compelling. Narrowbody aircraft demand much higher build rates — often a problem for composites manufacturing processes — and fuel consumption is much less of a factor on short-haul trips. Plus, parts must be designed and built to specifcations similar to those for widebodied aircraft, for damage tolerance, tending to increase laminate thicknesses beyond that needed for purely structural reasons. Tis increases weight and cost, reducing the benefts of carbon fber. Industry projections point to nearly 27,000 new narrowbody aircraft deliveries by 2034. By 2030, many of the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 planes delivered in the 1980s and 1990s will need replacement. New platform designs are in progress, but the level of carbon fber use in them is unknown at present. For the operators, however, our data point to emerging drivers that could radically alter the uptake of carbon fber technology, and those data are based on the track record of quality and reli- ability that composites have established over the past 10 years. Boeing's experience with composite foor beams in the Boeing 777 is a good example: In 565 aircraft, not one composite foor beam has been replaced in more than 10 years of commercial fight service. Te Boeing 777 composite tail is 25% larger than the Boeing 767 aluminum tail, and yet the maintenance logs show a savings of more than one-third in labor hours. Similarly, Airbus claims that the high penetration of carbon fber on the A350 XWB will reduce fatigue and corrosion-related maintenance by 60%. Te business case for carbon fber in narrowbodies has become a lot stronger now that these operational benefts are in evidence. Metal producers are responding to the carbon fber threat with new alloys and new technologies. Most of all, they are underlining their established position in the supply chain: Te relatively low cost of manufacture, the good recyclability of metals, and the wealth of knowledge about metal properties and performance. Previously, composites suppliers would not have been able to overcome these claims for metal. Although concerns about carbon fber recyclability remain, carbon fber's enhanced durability can reduce some of the issues. At the design stage, stress analysis, fnite Aerospace growth climbs with carbon fber MUSD 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2020 Start of new narr owbody platform design 2030 Introduction of ne w narrow- body platforms 2014 1,477 2034 Scenario 1 0% CF 20 34 Scenario 2 10% CF 20 34 Scenario 3 25% CF 20 34 Scenario 4 50% CF By 2034, the launch of new narrowbody platforms will tell us more about the success of their big brothers Planned production rates for B787, B777X, A350 & A380 Scenarios for penetration into new narrowbody platforms 850 850 850 850 739 295 Assumptions • Boeing and Airbus build rate only • Structural CF only • Intermediate-modulus CF at US$70/kg • Currently no structural CF on narrowbodies 400 • CF cost of ~US$2M on Boeing 787 • A t equal CF penetration, CF value/ seat is constant Source | FMG